Paul Goble
Staunton,
Apr. 13 – Vladimir Putin’s earlier plans to reduce the number of federal subjects
by combining poorer non-Russian republics with better off and predominantly
ethnic Russian regions have long been on hold because of local opposition and
fears in Moscow that fewer but larger federal subjects may be a greater threat
than more numerous and smaller ones.
But that
has not stopped the Kremlin leader from promoting the amalgamation of cities
and districts within both regions and republics as part of his general
optimization campaign intended to save money and tighten control over both local
populations and regional political elites.
Few of
these actions have attracted much outside attention, not only because they are
typically far from Moscow, involve only small groups of people and do not
generate much protest but also because there is a long tradition extending back
to Soviet times of combining areas for demographic, economic or political
purposes.
(For
background on this tradition of Russian statecraft and suggestions about its
extent, see this author’s “Can Republican Borders be Changed?” RFE/RL Report
on the USSR, September 28, 1990, pp. 20-21, reproduced at windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2021/05/borders-in-post-soviet-space-were.html.)
Now,
however, as a result of opposition by local people and local officials, two of
Moscow’s plans for amalgamation of villages and districts in the Yamalo-Nenets
Autonomous Oblast are in trouble; and Moscow has been forced to put them on hold
and promise public hearings (sever-press.ru/narrative/politika/reforma-na-pauze-pochemu-zhiteli-janao-vystupili-protiv-obedinenija-munitsipalitetov/).
While
ethnic Russians form more than 60 percent of the population of this oil and gas
autonomous district, most rural areas are dominated not by them but by members
of the Khanty and Mansi nationalities, many of whom clearly fear that
amalgamation is a plot to reduce their influence and put them under tighter ethnic
Russian control.
Thus, the
fight over district amalgamation in Yamalo-Nenets is likely to prove a
bellwether as far as broader efforts by the Kremlin to combine larger federal
districts. That is because while Moscow will get its way if it insists, any
such victory may prove Pyrrhic, given its consequences not only for other
amalgamations but also for Russia’s oil and gas production.